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Execution research / 002 Live case note

What Can Less Than 1 bp Add Up To?A 30-day stablecoin trading record

Most filled cycles earned less than one basis point. Across thousands of reconciled trades, those small spreads became a measurable result for one early Noman user.

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Pixel-art illustration of a trader reviewing many small stablecoin spread trades and an estimated user net result of 208.00 USDC
Illustration. The individual trade tiles and dashboard controls are schematic; the case figures below come from completed-cycle records.
Filled cycles2,072

Completed with a buy and sell

Below 1 bp87.4%

Of filled cycles

Estimated user net208.00 USDC

After a 25% estimated platform fee

One anonymized account · Rolling 30-day window ending 27 October 2026, 16:53 UTC · Historical result, not a return forecast.

Small spreads, repeated with discipline

One basis point is 0.01%. On a trade of roughly USD 2,500, that is about 25 cents. It is easy to dismiss an opportunity that small. It is also why the execution matters: fees, available depth, partial fills and the final sell all decide whether a quoted spread becomes a realized gain.

Noman's early user #3 configured a 2,500 USDT cap per cycle. The bot buys USDT with USD through a post-only limit order, then places a limit sell for the filled USDT against USDC. Actual fills may be smaller than the cap. The cycle is counted as traded only after both legs are completed and reconciled.

What the 30-day ledger shows

Filled cycles2,072
Positive / negative cycles2,070 / 2
Filled cycles below 1 bp87.4%
Median realized spread0.40 bp
Cumulative buy-leg notionalUSD 4,999,814.09
Trading PnL after recorded trading fees277.34 USDC
Estimated platform fee, 25% of cumulative PnL69.33 USDC
Estimated user net profit208.00 USDC

The ledger also contains 1,636 completed cycles with no buy fill and zero trading PnL. They are excluded from the filled-cycle counts and spread distribution above. Buy-leg notional counts each completed cycle once; it does not add the sell leg a second time.

Why the small numbers add up

The median filled cycle earned about 0.40 bp, and 87.4% earned less than 1 bp. The result came from repeated execution, not a single large spread. Over the observation window, the account recorded almost USD 5 million in cumulative buy-leg notional while keeping each cycle within its configured size cap.

For a simple scale comparison, 208.00 USDC is 8.32% of the 2,500 USDT cycle cap over 30 days. The cap is a trading limit, not a measurement of the account's full capital, so this ratio is not an account return or APY.

Risk controls are part of the record

There were two losing filled cycles. This is live trading, and a stablecoin pair does not make a trade risk-free. Noman checks current order-book depth and fees before opening a cycle, limits the amount that can be called into each cycle, and reconciles outstanding orders before starting another one when execution is uncertain. Liquidity, partial fills, stablecoin prices and exchange availability can still affect outcomes.

This is one early account over one 30-day window. It shows that sub-1-bp spreads can accumulate into a meaningful realized result under this setup. It does not say the same frequency or profit will repeat. We will keep measuring completed trades, costs and losses as the product matures.

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